It’s all over but the actual voting, which is to say it hasn’t even started yet.
There are some numbers that are finalized, however, as the voter registration deadline passed on October 9. Those on the rolls will soon determine the composition of Washington D.C. and Harrisburg.
Since the Obama bump of 2008, Democrats have held the registration advantage in Bucks County. Meanwhile, a steady trend of Republican gains through 2016 portended Trump’s surprise triumph. The GOP streak continued into 2017, but as this year dawned the tide began to turn back towards the Dems.
Today there are 194,656 registered Democrats and 184,711 registered Republicans throughout Bucks County. This amounts to an advantage of 9,945 for the blue party, up a net 897 since July. It’s worth noting that there are a considerable number of voters with no party affiliation (46,386) or who signed up with another party (28,151).
Thanks to the work of Decision Desk HQ’s Brandon Finnigan, we can see that Bucks County is part of a larger trend involving Southeast Pennsylvania as well as remaining a bit of an outlier.
From February to October, all four of the collar counties around Philadelphia saw net Democratic gains: Delaware (4,475); Montgomery (4,503); Chester (3,276) and Bucks (2,055).
Nevertheless, Bucks County remains unique as it saw more gains among both Democrats (3,953) and Republicans (1,898) than any other county.
So as a Democratic wave appears to be building, Bucks County added more Democrats than neighboring deep blue Montgomery County. While at the same time, it was far and away the leader in new Republican registrants, more than tripling its closest competitor.
The most likely explanation? Intense interest in the competitive contest in the First Congressional District between Republican incumbent Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick of Middletown and Democratic challenger Scott Wallace of Buckingham.
While there are some fiercely contested state senate races as well, it is the House battle that has drawn local and national attention.
Last June, Monmouth gave Fitzpatrick a one-point lead only to find him up four earlier this month. This week, the pendulum swung to Wallace after a New York Times/Siena survey found the Democrat up seven points. In response, the GOP congressman released an internal poll that showed him ahead by eight.
All the while, Pennsylvania increasingly looks to be a major battleground on November 6th. Under the new map the expectant breakdown is as follows:
- Sure Democratic holds: PA-02, PA-03, PA-04 and PA-18
- Likely Democratic holds: PA-08
- Likely Democratic pickups: PA-05, PA-06, PA-07 and PA-17
- Toss-Up: PA-01
- Likely Republican holds: PA-10 and PA-16
- Sure Republican holds: PA-09, PA-11, PA-12, PA-13, PA-14 and PA-15
As you can see, the Bucks County-based district will be a bellwether for the Democratic hopes of recapturing the House. A mediocre night would see them fall short here. If they prevail by a narrow margin, it’ll be a good night nationally. A solid win here could signal that PA-10 and PA-16 will fall as well, and that a blue wave really will’ve swept America.
To put it this in perspective, the only other state where even a best-care scenario could yield a seven seat gain for Democrats is far more populous and navy blue California.
So luckily for us, Pennsylvania is the state to watch on election night and the First Congressional District is the most crucial one.
I’ll end on one final note of interest. Fitzpatrick’s older brother Mike lost only one congressional race during his tenure. It occurred during the Democratic wave year of 2006 as he sought his own second term. Mike Fitzpatrick actually received more votes than opponent Patrick Murphy in Bucks County, but back then the district contained Democratic areas of Montgomery County and Northeast Philly that put Murphy over the top.
The redrawn map contains a much more Democratic area of Montgomery than it did two years ago. The most recent registration statistics available from June show a Democratic edge there of 2,031 (23,328 Dems; 21,297 Republicans; 9,377 others).
If Bucks County finds itself deadlocked on election night, history may very well repeat itself.
