By Kim Lyons & John Cole | Pennsylvania Capital-Star
Republican Dave McCormick appeared to win a major upset victory in Pennsylvania, beating three-term incumbent Bob Casey, which would give the GOP a key win in the U.S. Senate, where it now holds 53 seats. The Associated Press called the race on Thursday shortly after 4 p.m. with McCormick leading by 30,919 votes, or 0.46%.
“While votes continue to be counted, any way you slice it, Dave McCormick will be the next United States Senator from Pennsylvania,” Elizabeth Gregory, McCormick communications director, said in a statement Thursday ahead of the AP call.
But Casey did not concede on Thursday afternoon. His campaign sent a statement with a social media post from Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt that reads “Every legitimate vote must be counted in every election, we ask for patience as county election officials continue the work of counting ballots here in Pennsylvania. Election Day is the start of counting ballots here in the Commonwealth.”
Casey campaign spokesperson Maddy McDaniel said the race was not yet over.
“As the Pennsylvania Secretary of State said this afternoon, there are tens of thousands of ballots across the Commonwealth still to count, which includes provisional ballots, military and overseas ballots, and mail ballots,” McDaniel said in a statement. “This race is within half a point and cannot be called while the votes of thousands of Pennsylvanians are still being counted. We will make sure every Pennsylvanian’s voice is heard.”
If the current margin holds, or remains at or under 0.5%, it would trigger a recount under Pennsylvania law.
Schmidt said in a statement shortly after 5 p.m. Thursday that there were “at least 100,000 ballots remaining to be adjudicated, including provisional, military, overseas, and Election Day votes” and again urged patience “especially in contests where the margins are very close.”
Third-party candidates also may factor into the final tally in the race; as of 6 p.m. Thursday the state elections website showed Libertarian Party candidate John C. Thomas with 87,706 votes or 1.29%, Green Party candidate Leila Hazou with 64,088 votes or 0.94% and Constitution Party candidate Marty Selker with 23,072 votes, or 0.34%. The difference between McCormick’s 3,340,649 votes and Casey’s 3,308,691 votes at 6 p.m. was 31,958 votes.
McCormick, who served in former President George W. Bush’s administration, criticized Casey for his close relationship with Biden and his record of voting with the president’s agenda most of the time, and tried to portray the incumbent as “weak.” In 2022, McCormick lost the GOP primary to Mehmet Oz, who went on to lose to Democrat John Fetterman in the general election.
Democrats criticized the AP on Thursday for calling the race with so many outstanding votes left to be counted, and pointed to the 2022 recount in the GOP primary, where McCormick lost by less than 1,000 votes. His lawyers had argued in court that undated mail ballots should be counted toward the results.
The requirement for voters to write the date on Pennsylvania’s mail ballots has been a point of contention since the law was changed ahead of the 2020 election, but the state Supreme Court said in a Nov. 1 ruling that the requirement would remain in effect for ballots cast in the 2024 election.
“We still have tens of thousands of votes to be counted across the Commonwealth,” Fetterman said in a social media post Thursday, adding that the AP “shouldn’t make a call in this race until every Pennsylvanian has their vote counted.”
McCormick, a former hedge fund manager, contributed more than $4 million of his own money to his campaign, and was endorsed by President-elect Donald Trump early on in the campaign. He frequently appeared with the GOP candidate for president at rallies in Pennsylvania, including one in Butler in July where Trump was shot in an assassination attempt.
Casey, whose family has deep roots in the commonwealth, and who shares a Scranton connection with President Joe Biden, was first elected to the Senate in 2006. He is the longest serving Democratic U.S. Senator in Pennsylvania history.
Neither Casey or McCormick faced a serious challenger in the primary election, so the two have had their sights set on each other for most of the year.
The Republican National Committee congratulated McCormick Thursday. “As a combat veteran, business leader, and national security expert, the Senator-elect will make a great advocate for Americans in the Keystone State and partner for President Trump to Make America Great Again,” RNC chairman Michael Whatley said in a statement.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines said in a statement that McCormick had “ended a political dynasty, and will now use his considerable skills to bring bold new leadership to the United States Senate on behalf of all Pennsylvanians.”
The AP noted that Casey performed worse in every region of Pennsylvania than he did in 2018, when he won reelection to a third term, beating former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta 55.74% to 42.62%
McCormick’s victory means that Republicans in Pennsylvania won the presidency and all of the races for statewide office. The GOP also picked up two Pennsylvania U.S. House seats, with Reps. Susan Wild (D-7th District) and Matt Cartwright (D-8th District) both conceding on Wednesday. The AP called both races on Thursday.
The win is the first time in the 21st century that Republicans won the presidency and all of Pennsylvania’s statewide row offices in the same year.
Pennsylvania Capital-Star is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Pennsylvania Capital-Star maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Kim Lyons for questions: info@penncapital-star.com. Follow Pennsylvania Capital-Star on Facebook and Twitter.
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